Where are we headed with eBooks?

by Ted Padova

April 25, 2001

Editor's Note: Since this article was originally posted, there have been follow up responses from Kas Thomas, Bryan Guignard and Peter Zelchenko.

As a participant and speaker at Seybold Boston in April 2001, I was thrilled to be in the company of some of the world's best PDF experts… the visionaries, the ground breakers, the industry leaders, etc. Or were they?

I had expected to sit in seminars where enthusiasts would offer predictions and perhaps a little peek around the corner at what lies ahead in the next decade or two. Not so. I came back a little disappointed after attending the sessions related to eBooks. Mind you, I didn't see every session; but of the few I attended, I was a little disappointed.

Why was I disappointed? Well, for starters, I attended the Game Show, a Seybold event that pits one team against the other in answering industry questions. An hilarious time and valuable to hear the responses from some of the top experts in the world. One question that was posed to the panel was related to eBooks and where we expect to go with digital content. A response from a panel member stated emphatically that digital distribution of content will never replace printed works. After the comment, about 70% of the audience cheered in agreement.

In other sessions, people discussed where we are and perhaps where we might be in a year or two. The common pitfall of Western thinking is that we plan in such short terms. It is often said of American culture that we plan for the next quarter while Japan plans their technology for the next quarter century. The short term planning creates a mindset based on our immediate predictions of what will happen next year while missing the long-range effect of where we can expect to go.

Since I didn't have an opportunity to deliver a presentation on eBooks at this year's Seybold Boston show, I thought I might turn to planetPDF and offer some of the user community my thoughts on where I think eBooks will be and why my thinking differs from the mainstream.

A little reminiscence:

Before looking at the future, let's first take a stroll through the past.

Imagine that you are in Cupertino California in 1975. You approach two young men who speak of their vision of a world where every consumer, every business employee, and every student in a school will have access to a personal computer. Now in 1975, that prediction might have sounded rather absurd.

Imagine that the same year you speak to a Harvard dropout who discloses that, one day in the not too distant future, the richest companies in the world will be software development companies providing software for the explosion of personal computers. Ask yourself, what was your mindset when Microsoft went over the counter at $19 a share?

And, in the early 90's imagine if someone told you that before the end of the century more dollars will be devoted to online commerce sites than any other market. Would you have believed the predictions?

When trying to sneak a glimpse of the future, it's very difficult for people to remove themselves from their own frame of reference. What we know today is what we base our opinions on. Today, it's very easy to understand the explosion of microcomputer hardware, software manufacturing growth, and online commerce. However, in 1975 and in the early 90's, it wasn't so easy to visualize the predictions made by the few visionaries.

The future:

Here we are in 2001. When you attend a Seybold conference and listen to speakers, you sit in a room and hear people, mostly with a little gray in their hair, speak of what is to come. And these speakers are all coming from their own frame of reference with very few removing themselves from the familiar.

With regard to publishing, what is their frame of reference? Some of the speakers started their schooling with Dick and Jane. Through 12, 16, or 20 years of education, printed works has been all that these people have known. They're used to libraries, magazine stands, and educational programs where ten pounds of printed matter is browsed and digested. For someone to remove him/herself from this frame of reference definitely requires vision.

Most of the industry leaders, the masses of people who are lending a voice, and the astute fortunetellers are all coming from the same frame of reference. If the world of technology made no advances, then I suspect we could accept these opinions and be on our merry way. For one who has grown up over the last two, three, or four decades the comfort zone of a printed work is much more appealing than any LCD panel.

But wait a minute. Think about this. What happens when a young child begins school and is introduced to an eBook reader? What happens when the child finishes secondary and higher education? What happens when all the educational content is held on a single reader? Where do you think the comfort zone of the next generation will be? Something that will be almost foreign to the next generation of youngsters will be printed matter. Do you think the demands from those coming from this frame of reference will prefer leisure, academic, and reference material in printed form or on an LCD panel?

My predictions:

Personally, and I know I am in a minority on this, I believe that most of us will see a near extinction of printed works in our lifetime. A bold statement I know, but I think the end result will occur due to some of the following reasons:

Economy:

Let's first take a look at the schools. Everyone knows the schools in Western culture, and I suspect around the world, are struggling financially. Today, a high school chemistry book sells to a school district somewhere between $165 to $185. That's the price of one single book! Imagine if the production costs are cut in half for all school textbooks. School districts will be embracing such programs.

The cost savings for a school district would be sufficient enough that every child in a district could be given an electronic reader without cost to the parents and the budgets would still be less than purchasing printed works. This evolution begins the socialization of a generation that will become more familiar with reading from electronic devices than printed works. As this generation evolves, they'll be more inclined to download magazines, newspapers, leisure works and all other forms of reading material. Once it starts, we won't be able to change this generation's preferences.

In the publishing world, many publishers are now making annual purchase orders for the amount of paper required to carry all their published works. Due to severe paper shortages, publishers need to annually anticipate all their production needs. As an alternative to avoid production problems, publishers are now seeking alternative solutions. In the short term, I suspect some works will be published in electronic form simply due to the fact that the number of works and demand is greater than the paper allotment.

Efficiency:

Electronic works, especially Web hosted services, guarantee the user access to content wherever they may be. With wireless communications, users can download content from anywhere in the world. Traveling across town or across the planet requires only a single device where mountains of information can be accessed. For the student, the average 11.8 pounds of books can be reduced to less than 2 pounds.

For academic works, Web hosted services can assemble content on the fly per individual user requests. If you're interested in Andrew Jackson and his legislative acts during his first year of the presidency specific to a given act, a work can be assembled from many different sources to meet the specifications you define. For professional services, the time can be significantly reduced. Image the physician trying to diagnose a rare illness.

Annotations, notes and interactivity can all be employed for the academic and professional works. With a single reader a student could carry all content from the first grade through a doctoral program on a single reader together with notes, comments and related information.

Ecology:

It's pretty hard to be more than 12 years old in an educated culture and not know the severity of global warming. During the last century the planet has experienced a one degree shift in temperature. Scientists are predicting that by the end of this century the planet will experience a total of 3 degrees change in temperature. Doesn't seem like much does it? After all what's the difference between 72° and 75°? However, when you know that the end of the last ice age was a result of only a 9° shift in temperature, you can be certain we are at alarming proportions.

Almost every aspect of industrial societies needs to be changed with regard to manufacturing. We need more control over rain forest depletion, manufacturing processes, and the energy consumed in maintaining our quality of life. Through sheer necessity, it will be essential to find alternatives. Production of alternative means of content could very well be eventually forced by legislation.

The driving forces:

We are not at just an evolutionary step in the process. Not only will the economy, efficiency, and ecological reasoning force the market to happen, we have fierce development by technology leaders. Microsoft predicts the near extinction of printed works by the year 2020 —less than two decades away. This is not just a prediction, but Microsoft is driving the market to make it happen. Between Microsoft and Adobe Systems, the manufacturers are battling fiercely to become the new display format for eBooks. They're not just predicting our future; they are aggressively trying to shape it. With these efforts we can expect to see more pilot programs in schools, giving programs, and incentives to adopt a vendor's standards. There won't be any resistance. Schools, in particular, will take advantage of all forms of cost cutting measures.

When will it all happen?

Prototypes of dedicated hardware readers are beginning to emerge. During the next two years, educational institutions will be piloting programs and conducting research on the effectiveness of using hardware readers and acquiring content. By the year 2006, there should be a significant growth of eBook readers in the schools. Before the end of the decade, most major higher educational institutions will be selling hardware devices and content through university bookstores. By the year 2015, the new generation of college graduates will be acquiring all academic, professional, and leisure information electronically.

Before 2005, the new generation of LED devices will replace LCD panels and offer screen resolutions in excess of 400 dpi. The hardware devices will rival print on paper. As screen resolutions improve, works of fiction will become more appealing to consumers.

In Eastern culture consumer level eBook readers are beginning to proliferate. Japan is often three to five years ahead of the U.S. in regard to mass distribution of consumer electronic devices. By the year 2006 we should see the consumer devices begin to proliferate through Western culture. Devices for the consumer will likely have wireless telecommunications capabilities with video channels as well as performing the role of a reader. Hosting services will maintain individual online libraries in the event a device is lost. However, there may well be a homing device implanted in readers to pinpoint the location of a lost device.

By the year 2007 you should be able to download a restaurant guide, language guide, and cultural works mid-flight while traveling abroad. Before the end of the decade you should be able to download magazines and newspapers while drinking your latte at the local Starbucks. By the same year we should see no further development in mega bookstores. Floor space will be reduced in the large outlets before the end of the decade.

Congressional archives and government documents will begin translation from printed works to electronic work before 2015. Microsoft predicts the Library of Congress conversion will begin in 2015.

Before the end of two decades, we should see the sales of eMatter to significantly exceed all printed works. As we roll into the year 2020, we will see companies, publishing firms, and distributors fold their operations. A rapid decline in printing books, magazines and newspapers will ensue. Your children and grandchildren will likely smirk and roll their eyes every time you open a printed book left over from the old days.

What all this means to you

If it's at all possible, just like the possibility of mass consumer acceptance of the personal computer, just like the wealthiest company being a software manufacturer, and just like the explosion of online purchasing, then you may very well begin to see some opportunity.

First, realize that an eBook is not a hardware device. It's a book or booklet or pamphlet designed to be read on an electronic device. Secondly, realize that an eBook does not require a specific dedicated device. They can be read and viewed on personal computers, laptops, handheld devices as well as a dedicated reader.

The fact that eBooks can be purchased and used today means that there are opportunities for content development, publishing and distribution. Whether you are an aspiring author, publisher, or distributor, the opportunity now exists and the sky is the limit. We are beginning to explore a new industry with absolutely no standards. The standards are yet to be developed.

If you wish to develop content, then the time to begin is now. PDF is an excellent format that can be used to create eBooks. PDF files can be read on computers, laptops, handheld devices such as Palm devices, and through the Glassbook reader now known as the Adobe Acrobat eBook Reader.

If you wish to find the next explosion in commerce, there's a multi-billion dollar industry that is now in an infancy stage. All the current work, alternative work, and new work needs electronic development. If you're seeking a new venture, then take a look at this industry.

But beware…it's only open to visionaries.

Editor's Note: You can see sample chapters from two PDF-based eBooks that Ted created at Planet PDF -- "101 Acrobat 5.0 Forms eTips and Techniques" and "101 Acrobat 5.0 Tips and Techniques".